A machine learning-based classification of adult-onset diabetes identifies patients at risk of liver-related complications.

Background & aims: Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for fatty liver disease development and progression. A novel machine learning method identified five clusters of patients with diabetes, with different characteristics and risk of diabetic complications using six clinical and biological variables. We evaluated whether this new classification could identify individuals with an increased risk of liver-related complications. Methods: We used a prospective cohort of patients with a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes without evidence of advanced fibrosis at baseline recruited between 2000 and 2020. We assessed the risk of each diabetic cluster of developing liver-related complications (i.e. ascites, encephalopathy, variceal haemorrhage, hepatocellular carcinoma), using competing risk analyses. Results: We included 1,068 patients, of whom 162 (15.2%) were determined to be in the severe autoimmune diabetes subgroup, 266 (24.9%) had severe insulin-deficient diabetes, 95 (8.9%) had severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), 359 (33.6%) had mild obesity-related diabetes, and 186 (17.4%) were in the mild age-related diabetes subgroup. In multivariable analysis, patients in the SIRD cluster and those with excessive alcohol consumption at baseline had the highest risk for liver-related events. The SIRD cluster, excessive alcohol consumption, and hypertension were independently associated with clinically significant fibrosis, evaluated by liver biopsy or transient elastography. Using a simplified classification, patients assigned to the severe and mild insulin-resistant groups had a three- and twofold greater risk, respectively, of developing significant fibrosis compared with those in the insulin-deficient group. Conclusions: A novel clustering classification adequately stratifies the risk of liver-related events in a population with diabetes. Our results also underline the impact of the severity of insulin resistance and alcohol consumption as key prognostic risk factors for liver-related complications. Impact and implications: Diabetes represents a major risk factor for NAFLD development and progression. This study examined the ability of a novel machine-learning approach to identify at-risk diabetes subtypes for liver-related complications. Our results suggest that patients that had severe insulin resistance had the highest risk of liver-related outcomes and fibrosis progression. Moreover, excessive alcohol consumption at the diagnosis of diabetes was the strongest risk factor for developing liver-related events.

Antibody response in children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome related to COVID-19 (MIS-C) compared to children with uncomplicated COVID-19.

Objectives: To comprehensively analyze the quality of the antibody response between children with Multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) and age-matched controls at one month after SARS-CoV-2 exposure, and infected in the same time-period. Methods: Serum from 20 MIS-C children at admission, and 14 control children were analyzed. Antigen specific antibody isotypes and subclasses directed against various antigens of SARS-CoV-2 as well as against human common coronavirus (HCoVs) and commensal or pathogenic microorganisms were assessed by a bead-based multiplexed serological assay and by ELISA. The functionality of these antibodies was also assessed using a plaque reduction neutralization test, a RBD-specific avidity assay, a complement deposition assay and an antibody-dependent neutrophil phagocytosis (ADNP) assay. Results: Children with MIS-C developed a stronger IgA antibody response in comparison to children with uncomplicated COVID-19, while IgG and IgM responses are largely similar in both groups. We found a typical class-switched antibody profile with high level of IgG and IgA titers and a measurable low IgM due to relatively recent SARS-CoV-2 infection (one month). SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies of MIS-C children had higher functional properties (higher neutralization activity, avidity and complement binding) as compared to children with uncomplicated COVID-19. There was no difference in the response to common endemic coronaviruses between both groups. However, MIS-C children had a moderate increase against mucosal commensal and pathogenic strains, reflecting a potential association between a disruption of the mucosal barrier with the disease. Conclusion: Even if it is still unclear why some children develop a MIS-C, we show here that MIS-C children produce higher titers of IgA antibodies, and IgG antibodies with higher functionality, which could reflect the local gastro-intestinal mucosal inflammation potentially induced by a sustained SARS-CoV-2 gut infection leading to continuous release of SARS-CoV-2 antigens.

Sympathetic nervous activation, mitochondrial dysfunction and outcome in acutely decompensated cirrhosis: the metabolomic prognostic models (CLIF-C MET).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current prognostic scores of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD), particularly those with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), underestimate the risk of mortality. This is probably because systemic inflammation (SI), the major driver of AD/ACLF, is not reflected in the scores. SI induces metabolic changes, which impair delivery of the necessary energy for the immune reaction. This investigation aimed to identify metabolites associated with short-term (28-day) death and to design metabolomic prognostic models. METHODS: Two prospective multicentre large cohorts from Europe for investigating ACLF and development of ACLF, CANONIC (discovery, n=831) and PREDICT (validation, n=851), were explored by untargeted serum metabolomics to identify and validate metabolites which could allow improved prognostic modelling. RESULTS: Three prognostic metabolites strongly associated with death were selected to build the models. 4-Hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate is a norepinephrine derivative, which may be derived from the brainstem response to SI. Additionally, galacturonic acid and hexanoylcarnitine are associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. Model 1 included only these three prognostic metabolites and age. Model 2 was built around 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenylglycol sulfate, hexanoylcarnitine, bilirubin, international normalised ratio (INR) and age. In the discovery cohort, both models were more accurate in predicting death within 7, 14 and 28 days after admission compared with MELDNa score (C-index: 0.9267, 0.9002 and 0.8424, and 0.9369, 0.9206 and 0.8529, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.940, 0.834 and 0.791, and 0.947, 0.857 and 0.810, with model 1 and model 2, respectively). Also, in ACLF, model 1 and model 2 outperformed MELDNa 7, 14 and 28 days after admission for prediction of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Models including metabolites (CLIF-C MET) reflecting SI, mitochondrial dysfunction and sympathetic system activation are better predictors of short-term mortality than scores based only on organ dysfunction (eg, MELDNa), especially in patients with ACLF.

Cirrhosis is associated with lower serological responses to COVID-19 vaccines in patients with chronic liver disease.

Background & Aims: The response of patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) to COVID-19 vaccines remains unclear. Our aim was to assess the humoral immune response and efficacy of two-dose COVID-19 vaccines among patients with CLD of different aetiologies and disease stages. Methods: A total of 357 patients were recruited in clinical centres from six European countries, and 132 healthy volunteers served as controls. Serum IgG (nM), IgM (nM), and neutralising antibodies (%) against the Wuhan-Hu-1, B.1.617, and B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins were determined before vaccination (T0) and 14 days (T2) and 6 months (T3) after the second-dose vaccination. Patients fulfilling inclusion criteria at T2 (n = 212) were stratified into 'low' or 'high' responders according to IgG levels. Infection rates and severity were collected throughout the study. Results: Wuhan-Hu-1 IgG, IgM, and neutralisation levels significantly increased from T0 to T2 in patients vaccinated with BNT162b2 (70.3%), mRNA-1273 (18.9%), or ChAdOx1 (10.8%). In multivariate analysis, age, cirrhosis, and type of vaccine (ChAdOx1 > BNT162b2 > mRNA-1273) predicted 'low' humoral response, whereas viral hepatitis and antiviral therapy predicted 'high' humoral response. Compared with Wuhan-Hu-1, B.1.617 and, further, B.1.1.529 IgG levels were significantly lower at both T2 and T3. Compared with healthy individuals, patients with CLD presented with lower B.1.1.529 IgGs at T2 with no additional key differences. No major clinical or immune IgG parameters associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection rates or vaccine efficacy. Conclusions: Patients with CLD and cirrhosis exhibit lower immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination, irrespective of disease aetiology. The type of vaccine leads to different antibody responses that appear not to associate with distinct efficacy, although this needs validation in larger cohorts with a more balanced representation of all vaccines. Impact and Implications: In patients with CLD vaccinated with two-dose vaccines, age, cirrhosis, and type of vaccine (Vaxzevria > Pfizer BioNTech > Moderna) predict a 'lower' humoral response, whereas viral hepatitis aetiology and prior antiviral therapy predict a 'higher' humoral response. This differential response appears not to associate with SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence or vaccine efficacy. However, compared with Wuhan-Hu-1, humoral immunity was lower for the Delta and Omicron variants, and all decreased after 6 months. As such, patients with CLD, particularly those older and with cirrhosis, should be prioritised for receiving booster doses and/or recently approved adapted vaccines.

Clinical Course and Risk Factors for Infection in Severe Forms of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Infection is a major driver of mortality in patients with advanced alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). The epidemiology and clinical course of patients infected with life-threatening forms of ALD, including severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) and decompensated alcohol-associated cirrhosis (DAC), and specific risk factors for infection remain mostly unknown. APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this observational study, we assessed all infectious episodes occurring within a 90-day period from diagnosis in all consecutive patients with biopsy-proven sAH (modified Maddrey's discriminant function ≥ 32, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] ≥ 18) and DAC (MELD ≥ 18) without alcohol-associated hepatitis in our tertiary hospital between 2003 and 2016. A total of 207 patients were included: 139 with sAH and 68 with DAC. One hundred seventeen (84%) patients with sAH and 41 (60%) patients with DAC experienced at least one infection episode at 90 days (P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with the development of infection were the presence of sAH and baseline MELD score. Bacterial infections represented the most common infection in the two groups, and only the MELD score was independently associated with the occurrence of bacterial infection. In both groups, pneumonia was the most prevalent bacterial infection, and gram-negative bacilli were the main pathogens. Invasive fungal infections (IFI) occurred in 20 (14.5%) patients with sAH and 3 (4.5%) with patients with DAC (P < 0.05). Multivariable regression showed that younger age, higher MELD, and corticosteroid therapy were independently associated with IFI. The 90-day cumulative incidence of death in patients infected with sAH and patients infected with DAC was 46% and 41.5%, respectively (P = 0.43). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with sAH are more susceptible to develop infection than those with DAC. In life-threatening forms of ALD, patients who were infected share a similar mortality rate. Corticosteroid treatment, not sAH, seems to be the main risk factor triggering IFI.

Long-term outcome in patients with acute liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute liver failure patients who meet poor prognostic criteria have high early mortality without emergency liver transplantation. A recent study however, reported that patients that survive spontaneously have a poorer outcome compared with patients undergoing transplantation. In this single centre study, we aimed to confirm or refute this observation. METHODS: Early survivors (acute liver failure patients who survived 90 days after the ICU admission) were assessed for long-term outcomes in four distinctive cohorts, incorporating aetiology (Acetaminophen overdose or non-Acetaminophen overdose), and management strategy (conservative or liver transplantation). Chi Squared or Fisher test were used to compare outcomes among the four cohorts (P < 0.05) and Kaplan-Meier curve (Log Rank test) to represent cumulative survival. RESULTS: Two hundred consecutive acute liver failure patients between 1990 and 2014 were included; mean age 38.3, ±12.8, male 70, 35%. 124/200 (62%) early survivors were identified; 13/124 (10.5%) acetaminophen patients underwent transplantation and 48/124 (38.7%) survived spontaneously; 36/124 (29.0%) non-acetaminophen underwent transplantation and 27/124 (21.8%) survived spontaneously. A total of 11/124 (8.9%) died subsequently (median survival 5.3± IQR 9.1), three spontaneous survivors and eight transplanted patients (P = 0.025); of the eight transplanted patients, six died of transplant related complications and two of suicide. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that although liver transplantation is a life-saving procedure for acute liver failure patients, they have a worse long-term outcome compared with spontaneous survivors. Novel therapies to increase the percentage of spontaneous survivors are urgently needed.

The prognostic value of acute-on-chronic liver failure during the course of severe alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A better identification of factors predicting death is needed in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) occurs during the course of liver disease and can be identified when AH is diagnosed (prevalent ACLF [pACLF]) or during follow-up (incidental ACLF [iACLF]). This study analyzed the impact of ACLF on outcomes in AH and the role of infection on the onset of ACLF and death. METHODS: Patients admitted from July 2006 to July 2015 suffering from biopsy-proven severe (s)AH with a Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) ≥32 were included. Infectious episodes, ACLF, and mortality were assessed during a 168-day follow-up period. Results were validated on an independent cohort. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five patients were included. Mean mDF was 66.3 ±â€¯20.7 and mean model for end-stage liver disease score was 26.8 ±â€¯7.4. The 28-day cumulative incidence of death (CID) was 31% (95% CI 24-39%). Seventy-nine patients (47.9%) had pACLF. The 28-day CID without pACLF and with pACLF-1, pACLF-2, and pACLF-3 were 10.4% (95% CI 5.1-18.0), 30.8% (95% CI 14.3-49.0), 58.3% (95% CI 35.6-75.5), and 72.4% (95% CI 51.3-85.5), respectively, p <0.0001. Twenty-nine patients (17.5%) developed iACLF. The 28-day relative risk of death in patients developing iACLF was 41.87 (95% CI 5.2-335.1; p <0.001). A previous infection was the only independent risk factor for developing iACLF during the follow-up. Prevalence, incidence, and impact on prognosis of ACLF were confirmed in a validation cohort of 97 patients with probable sAH. CONCLUSIONS: ACLF is frequent during the course of sAH and is associated with high mortality. Infection strongly predicts the development of ACLF in this setting. LAY SUMMARY: In patients with chronic liver disease, an acute deterioration of liver function combined with single or multiple organ failures is known as acute-on-chronic liver failure. This study shows that acute-on-chronic liver failure is frequent during the course of severe alcoholic hepatitis. In severe alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure is associated with high mortality and frequently occurs after an infection.

Development of an organ failure score in acute liver failure for transplant selection and identification of patients at high risk of futility.

INTRODUCTION: King's College Hospital criteria are currently used to select liver transplant candidates in acetaminophen-related acute liver failure (ALF). Although widely accepted, they show a poor sensitivity in predicting pre-transplant mortality and cannot predict the outcome after surgery. In this study we aimed to develop a new prognostic score that can allow patient selection for liver transplantation more appropriately and identify patients at high risk of futile transplantation. METHODS: We analysed consecutive patients admitted to the Royal Free and Beaujon Hospitals between 1990 and 2015. Clinical and laboratory data at admission were collected. Predictors of 3-month mortality in the non-transplanted patients admitted to the Royal Free Hospital were used to develop the new score, which was then validated against the Beaujon cohort. The Beaujon-transplanted group was also used to assess the ability of the new score in identifying patients at high risk of transplant futility. RESULTS: 152 patients were included of who 44 were transplanted. SOFA, CLIF-C OF and CLIF-ACLF scores were the best predictors of 3-month mortality among non-transplanted patients. CLIF-C OF score and high dosages of norepinephrine requirement were the only significant predictors of 3-month mortality in the non-transplanted patients, and therefore were included in the ALF-OFs score. In non-transplanted patients, ALF-OFs showed good performance in both exploratory (AUC = 0.89; sensitivity = 82.6%; specificity = 89.5%) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.988; sensitivity = 100%; specificity = 92.3%). ALF-OFs score was also able to identify patients at high risk of transplant futility (AUC = 0.917; sensitivity = 100%; specificity = 79.2%). CONCLUSION: ALF-OFs is a new prognostic score in acetaminophen-related ALF that can predict both the need for liver transplant and high risk of transplant futility, improving candidate selection for liver transplantation.

New concepts in acute-on-chronic liver failure: Implications for liver transplantation.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a recently defined syndrome that occurs frequently in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a poor short-term prognosis. Currently, management of patients with ACLF is mainly supportive. Despite medical progress, this syndrome frequently leads to multiorgan failure, sepsis, and, ultimately, death. The results of attempts to use liver transplantation (LT) to manage this critical condition have been poorly reported but are promising. Currently, selection criteria of ACLF patients for LT, instructions for prioritization on the waiting list, and objective indicators for removal of ACLF patients from the waiting list in cases of clinical deterioration are poorly defined. Before potential changes can be implemented into decisional algorithms, their effects, either on the benefits to individual patients or on global transplant outcomes, should be carefully evaluated using objective longterm endpoints that take into account ethical considerations concerning LT. Liver Transplantation 23 234-243 2017 AASLD.